Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 190.370496 231.066686 281.474393 349.643466 441.247304 5.628500e+02 7.414282e+02
2025-04-27 149.272160 198.472268 267.659700 376.221111 550.784541 8.378324e+02 1.389649e+03
2025-05-04 124.933433 176.694308 256.223730 395.536239 653.896480 1.165454e+03 2.445226e+03
2025-05-11 107.810165 159.657333 244.879318 407.849410 748.731062 1.548103e+03 4.167813e+03
2025-05-18 94.275447 144.669643 232.018718 411.441560 827.439271 1.966774e+03 6.904686e+03
2025-05-25 82.697163 130.425453 216.653472 404.251320 878.344909 2.369447e+03 1.093329e+04
2025-06-01 73.091677 117.841162 201.456440 392.280588 911.675936 2.764765e+03 1.699375e+04
2025-06-08 65.258629 107.174366 187.762269 379.440129 936.817297 3.175250e+03 2.661073e+04
2025-06-15 63.314084 107.041966 195.012847 418.809534 1146.517389 4.768858e+03 8.060589e+04
2025-06-22 58.781809 101.234412 189.173037 423.058456 1244.361245 6.042203e+03 2.053877e+05
2025-06-29 55.598187 97.629636 187.436685 438.065241 1397.367571 8.196568e+03 9.335896e+05
2025-07-06 51.574067 91.790585 179.601077 433.193493 1467.280375 1.000699e+04 5.449258e+06
2025-07-13 50.453485 92.008344 186.400710 476.982318 1816.849978 1.717898e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 48.899489 91.099488 190.383880 514.368038 2195.433302 2.993391e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 47.022806 89.216352 191.542208 543.116733 2578.661702 5.243533e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 44.902517 86.502295 190.001333 561.749627 2937.296064 9.139005e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 42.530949 82.921280 185.467111 567.209617 3216.802098 1.523783e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 39.882749 78.404651 177.592924 556.259436 3347.010315 2.257634e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 37.285035 73.757271 168.674793 538.091843 3391.571256 3.128538e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 34.906551 69.418996 160.054868 518.688717 3404.878972 4.265365e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 34.828987 70.652445 168.005909 578.453433 4471.711290 3.153804e+06 NaN
2025-09-14 33.393042 68.372255 164.981242 584.951504 4915.711174 1.605415e+07 NaN
2025-09-21 32.422503 67.166272 165.110233 607.975114 5715.641116 8.664389e+09 NaN